Chapter 9, Page 1

Chapter 9

Probable Truth

Induction

The philosopher Bertrand Russell told a story to introduce inductive logic. I have adapted Russell’s story for that same purpose. My version, however, is more elaborate than his.

In early May, Hoot Shoemake bought fifty two-day-old Rhode Island Red chicks, as he did every spring. When they outgrew the brooder, he moved them into a coop out in the barnyard. Every day about sundown, he would lock them in the coop so they would be secure from raccoons, coyotes, foxes, owls, and other nighttime predators. In the morning, a little before sunup, he would let them out, give them fresh water and feed, and let them run and play, scratch for bugs, and chase grasshoppers. In the evening, he would shut them back into their nighttime security. This was the daily pattern.

June came and then July. Life was wonderful, especially for the little chick that Hoot’s daughter, Kaycee, had named “Rhoda.” When it was dark, she was always securely locked in and huddled up close to the rest of the little flock. When it was light, she was always free to run, play, scratch, chase grasshoppers, and enjoy fresh water and all she wanted to eat. As far as she could remember, this had been the pattern for every day of her life. Therefore, inductively, when daylight came one morning and Rhoda heard Hoot’s footsteps coming, she knew what the day would bring. Except …

Except that all days are not created equal. Some days are exceptional. What little chicken Rhoda didn’t know was that this was Sunday, July 11, and the Shoemake family had invited the preacher to eat lunch with them. So she was surprised, no, shocked, when, as she